Scientists Say ‘City Killer’ Asteroid Could Hit the Moon Instead of Us — So What Happens Then?

Just after Christmas of 2024, some NASA scientists observing through a telescope in Chile noticed a strange space rock zipping near Earth’s orbit. Usually, many objects are circulating in Earth’s orbit and so this rock wasn’t a problem, until four days later. As scientists deeply studied the rock’s positional measurements, they became alarmed and added a new name “2024 YR4” to their Sentry list, which records “near-Earth asteroids that have a non-zero probability of impacting Earth in the future.” 2024 YR4, a near-Earth asteroid, showed the possibility of striking the planet in 2032. But now, a scientist has shared that the probability has increased, and the catch is that the asteroid could strike the Moon too. If it does, would it be raining moon debris on Earth?

The asteroid is estimated to be 130 to 300 feet wide, which is “about as wide as Walt Disney World's Cinderella Castle is tall,” according to Live Science, or “around the size of Leaning Tower of Pisa,” per New York Post. NASA scientists estimated that the probability of it hitting the planet on December 22, 2032, increased from 1.2% to 2.3%. This impressive explosion would release “more than 500 times the energy released by the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima.” To say it simply, the “city-killer” asteroid would trigger a mass extinction that would wipe out life on Earth, just the way an asteroid wiped out dinosaurs 66 million years ago. However, what if the 2024 YR4 crashed into the Moon instead?

David Rankin, a comet and asteroid spotter at the University of Arizona, wrote in a post, that there are 0.3% odds of this asteroid slamming into the Moon, Earth’s only natural satellite. Since the Moon doesn’t have an atmosphere to slow down asteroids, this collision would release enormous lunar debris into space, which may even rain on Earth. But Rankin believes that the chance of this happening is not very high. "There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat," Rankin told New Scientist.

In contrast with its collision with the Earth, the collision with the Moon would release more energy than 340 Hiroshima bombs, Rankin told Live Science. This humongous explosion could also enable earthlings to witness some trails of shimmer in their skies. "It would likely be very visible from Earth," Rankin added. Gareth Collins, a professor of planetary science at Imperial College London, told New Scientist that humans don’t need to fear this collision. "We would be quite safe on Earth," he said, adding that any material ejected from the collision would likely burn up in Earth's atmosphere.

Space agencies continue to keep an eye on the gigantic space rock attempting to probe Earth’s orbit. At the same time, scientists believe that this asteroid is nothing to lose sleep over. “There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in. New observations may result in reassignment of this asteroid to 0 as more data come in,” said NASA.