Over 90% of Emperor Penguins Could Disappear by 2100 — And Only One Thing Is To Blame

Huddled together in the pristine white snowscape, Emperor penguins are synonymous with Antarctica, and among other peculiar behavioral patterns, they exhibit an unusual breeding cycle. The whole cycle may look like a big picture of infidelity, but in actuality, this breeding cycle is a crucial factor that allows scientists to assess climate change. This is because penguins can’t breed without sea ice.

Sea ice acts as a bassinet that cradles the fluffy bodies of these flightless birds. Hence, as the ice melts away due to the warming up of the planet, the fate of these penguins appears to be hanging by a thread. A study published in Communications Earth & Environment stated that if humans fail to control global warming, the Emperor penguins may go extinct nearly by 2100.

In 2020, scientists of the British Antarctic Survey assessed some satellite images to monitor the presence of Emperor penguins by spotting the brownish-red patches of their poop laid across the ice sheet. They estimated that there were nearly 20% more emperor penguin colonies in Antarctica than previously thought. However, the latest study shattered the positive image as researchers revealed that almost “90% of the species colonies will be quasi-extinct by 2100 if global warming isn’t controlled."

They arrived at this conclusion after noticing the record-breaking failure in Emperor penguins’ breeding, which coincided with the record levels of global warming in the spring of 2022. Extreme burning of fossil fuels accelerated the greenhouse gas emissions, leading to a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius. This triggered the melting of sea ice in Antarctica. As climate change hits its tipping point, the penguin colonies feel the threat of losing their only home.

“We provide evidence of a regional breeding failure of emperor penguin colonies due to sea ice loss using Sentinel 2 satellite imagery. Of the five breeding sites in the region all but one experienced total breeding failure after sea ice break-up before the start of the fledging period of the 2022 breeding season. This is the first recorded incident of a widespread breeding failure of emperor penguins that is clearly linked with large-scale contractions in sea ice extent,” the researchers noted in the paper.

To analyze the breeding behavior of penguins, Stephanie Jenouvrie and her colleagues designed mathematical models of future colonies and populations under three different scenarios. They were, hitting the Paris deal’s top target of 1.5°C, achieving its minimum goal of no more than 2°C, and what would happen if emissions keep rising as they are today, as per New Scientist. “For me, the population is going to be extinct. Such a big decline would leave so few individuals that in ecological terms it would be considered an extinction,” Jenouvrier, who’s a seabird ecologist, explained.

According to BBC, the scientists claimed that if the countries took action in line with the “Paris climate agreement,” then there could be enough sea ice to support the penguins, although this would still be less than it was today. "We need to act now before it's too late," Jenouvrier told BBC. Otherwise, if the planet keeps on warming up at this alarming rate, the white continent could entirely lose these distinctive creatures.