Fact Check: What Happens if Asteroid 2024 YR4 Actually Hits the Moon?

What would happen if an asteroid hit the Earth's moon? No, it's not the plot of an upcoming blockbuster movie starring everyone's favorite action heroes. Instead, it's the very real prediction NASA is making after the discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4.

The experts at the space agency have said that there is a small probability that the asteroid could make contact with the Earth's satellite, raising questions about what that could mean for life here on our planet.

While it doesn't sound like it would look anything like the special effects we would expect to see in a Hollywood film, there are some things that NASA says we can, and cannot, expect to see if an asteroid makes direct contact with our moon.

Keep reading to learn more, including when 2024 YR4 is expected to make impact.

Before you start to worry about how apocalyptic an asteroid hitting the moon could be, it's important to realize that asteroids hit the Earth's moon all the time. In fact, The Planetary Society says that these space rocks are actually what gives the moon its cratered texture. And, while the number of craters on the moon likely number in the millions, The Planetary Society says that not every divot was caused by an asteroid.

So, other than a lot of dents, what does happen when asteroids hit the moon? It depends on the size. For example, a large asteroid would make a large hole and send a lot of debris up into the atmosphere. Smaller asteroids would make smaller dents, and likely send up less of a cloud.

The good news is that, despite what Hollywood would have us believe, it's unlikely that any asteroid could do much damage to the moon.

The Planetary Society says that even if you combined all of the asteroids our solar system, it still wouldn't be big enough to do significant damage to the moon, making it next to impossible for a "city killer" asteroid to even do so much as put a crack in the moon's surface.

Like we mentioned, NASA has discovered an asteroid that has a small chance — as of April 4, 2025, NASA put the probability of impact at 3.8 percent, according to the BBC — of hitting the moon in 2032.

The space agency has been tracking 2024 YR4 using the James Webb Space Telescope, and periodically updates the probability of an impact as new information is observed.

The 2024 YR4 is estimated to be the size of a 10-story building. Of course, NASA officials haven't really dialed in on the asteroid's size yet, thanks to the distance and rate of speed it's traveling at.

But, to put it into perspective, NASA says that the largest asteroids — which are known as Vesta and clock in at about 329 miles in diameter — are far more formattable than 2024 YR4, which is just an estimated 130-300 feet in diameter.

That should bring a sign of relief to anyone who was worried about the possible consequences an asteroid could have when it makes impact on the moon, since it doesn't sound like 2024 YR4, or any asteroids really, will have too much of a negative impact on the satellite.