Will The 2021 Hurricane Season Be the Worst Year Yet?

Let’s face it: no matter what triumphs you may have personally experienced in 2020, we can all agree that it wasn’t a “banner year” by any means. Between the raging wildfires, pandemic, and a record-breaking hurricane season, many folks were glad to see the back of old 2020. We might be out of the woods when it comes to some of those issues, but unfortunately, the 2021 hurricane season predictions aren’t shaping up to be any better.

According to Severe Weather Europe, the 2021 hurricane season is expected to be just as active as it has been over the past six consecutive years. Landfalls also have a high probability of occurring in the Caribbean, and potentially along the U.S. coastline.

On average, hurricane seasons include only around 14 named storms, with seven of them being hurricanes and only three of those considered major or severe. The assumption for 2021 is that there will be at least 17 named tropical storms, and that number could include as many as eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes. According to Severe Weather Europe, these early forecasts were made by a team of scientists at Colorado State University (CSU). 

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), the 2021 hurricane season will officially begin on June 1. It will run through November 30, covering all areas in the Atlantic basin including the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea. 

Climate change is being held responsible as one of the many reasons that hurricanes and other such tropical storms have been so severe in recent years. The 2020 season was perhaps the most active hurricane season on record, according to Forbes. 13 of that year’s 30 named tropical storms were considered hurricanes. Of those 13, six were so severe that they were considered major hurricanes of at least category 3 or higher.

However, experts believe that the 2021 hurricane season might not be as bad as all that. Still, based on the numbers reported by NOAA and CSU, 2021’s hurricanes will still be above average in terms of frequency, if not outright intensity. The biggest concern is that this year’s hurricanes have a high probability of making landfall along the coast of the U.S. That probability is about 70 percent, and there is allegedly a 50-50 chance of the U.S. mainland being hit as well. 

The Caribbean, meanwhile, has a slightly lower chance of being hit by the 2021 hurricanes. But even at 60 percent, that number is worrying, especially considering how devastating storms have been to places like Haiti and Puerto Rico in recent years. More information is needed, but current predictions are enough of a warning that everyone who lives in these coastal, Atlantic regions should be on their guard come June.