Have Autism Rates Really Increased in the U.S.? Trump's Claim Explained

During Donald Trump's first State of the Union Address of his second term, he asked newly appointed Secretary of Health Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to look into what he claims is an increase in cases of autism in children.

The Mar. 5, 2025, speech wasn't the first time that Trump asked Kennedy to look into his claims, but it did raise questions about whether or not autism diagnoses really are on the rise.

And while the numbers Trump has been quoting about these cases have been proven to be incorrect, many have found themselves asking why the rates of autism have increased anyway and whether the problem is isolated to the U.S.

Keep reading to learn more about the facts, including why we may have advancements in healthcare to blame for a perceived bump in cases.

There's good news for anyone worried that there has been a spike in autism cases. According to a 2006 recommendation from the American Academy of Pediatrics, all children began receiving autism screenings — which tests for signs of the condition that affects the developmental and neurological aspects of the brain's development — during their well visits.

These screenings began during their 18- and 24-month screens, which increased early detection, especially when it came to kiddos with milder forms of the condition.

In short, there were not more instances of children being born with autism. Instead, there was an increase in the number of children screened for the condition, which allowed for the number of cases to be correctly identified.

According to the World Population Review, rates of autism vary by country. Some countries have lower rates than other, and France ranks among the lowest of those with just 69.3 cases for every 10,000 people.

Portugal clocks in at the second lowest, with just 70.5 for every 10,000 people.

As for the countries with the highest rates, World Population Review says that the United Kingdom was number one, with 700.07 cases for every 10,000 people, from there, Sweden, Japan, the U.S., and Netherlands were the next four highest on the list, each with several hundred cases for every 10,000 people in the country.

Trump focused briefly on autism rates among children during his address. This topic has been a frequent one for him, and he once erroneously said that one in 34 children in the U.S. had been diagnosed with the condition.

But, according to Axios, that's not exactly true. Instead, they say that as of 2020, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) put out an estimate that said something like 1 in 36 8-year-olds had been diagnosed with the disorder.

And, that figure seems to be coming down, according to the CDC, which says that as of 2000, that rate was more like 1 in 150.

So, when it comes to whether the rates of autism are on the rise, it looks like the answer is that they aren't. At least not in the U.S. And, while the numbers seem to point to a decline in the disorder, that may not actually be the case either.

Instead, Axios says that most of the difference in the figures over the years has to do with the tools and criteria used in diagnosing the condition. Not only that, but what qualifies for an autism diagnosis has changed as well, since there is now a whole spectrum of disorders included in diagnosis.

What Trump expects RFK Jr. to do about these numbers remains unclear, but according to the Wall Street Journal, the president felt it was important enough to dedicate a portion of his speech to it.