Experts Warn the International Space Station May Be at Risk of a “Catastrophic Failure”

Astronauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) are getting conflicting reports about a worsening leak in part of the outer space laboratory.

The leak, which experts have been aware of for years, has apparently become unmanageable over the latter part of 2024, prompting concern for the crew and their families back on Earth.

Not everyone agrees that the cracks causing the air to leak out of a portion of the ISS are anything to be worried about, putting interstellar relationships to the test as Russian officials and NASA engineers try to agree on whether the space station's leak is getting worse, and what they should be doing about it.

Continue reading to learn more about the tense situation.

To hear NASA officials explain it, the ISS is in jeopardy of a "catastrophic failure" due to a leak in the Russian part of the ship. ISS Advisory Committee chair Bob Cabana brought up his concerns while speaking with Space News about the Nov.13, 2024 meeting between himself and NASA's committee.

According to Cabana, a leak in the Zvezda's service module vestibule has worsened since its discovery in 2019.

The leak requires the station's crews to seal off Prk, the name of the vestibule where the leak was discovered, whenever they don't need to use it to access the cargo section located near that portion of the ISS. 

“Although the teams continue to investigate the causal factors for the crack initiation and growth, the U.S. and Russian technical teams don’t have a common understanding of what the likely root cause is or the severity of the consequences of these leaks,” Cabana explained.

According to him, Russian engineers are convinced that the leak was caused by cracks that resulted from micro-vibrations which caused something known as "high cyclic fatigue." 

NASA, on the other hand, thinks that the issue is much more serious and involves multiple factors, including residual stress and environmental exposure. 

Despite being unable to agree on the cause of the leaks, it seems like both agencies agree that the ISS is losing air at a rate of 1.7 kilograms per day, the highest amount they've detected since the discovery of the leak.

Air leak aside, the fate of the ISS is a complex one. The 900,000lb laboratory presents a unique problem for the countries that share responsibility for the ship, especially when it comes time to decommission it and bring it back into the Earth's orbit so it can be disposed of, according to Space.

Because of the nature of the ship, simply returning to Earth isn't really an option. Instead, the ISS will likely need to slow the rate at which it falls toward Earth as much as possible so that NASA can attempt to control the trajectory of the 400-ton station. NASA will then have to work carefully to ensure that the larger chunks of the ship that aren't immediately burned up upon re-entry don't hit any populated areas.

Additionally, they'll need to be mindful of where some of the more toxic elements of the ship land to keep them from causing potential harm to any humans, animals, or waterways when they hit the ground.

If it explodes while it's still in orbit, that could change things a bit. While smaller pieces may be likely to burn up quicker as they re-enter the Earth's atmosphere, the debris field could be much larger, and therefore harder for NASA and other officials to predict or control.

That could spell disaster if the debris field falls across populated communities which may not have a whole lot of warning, information, or where to go, as the pieces of the ISS started raining down from the skies.

Fortunately, it doesn't seem like either NASA or Russian officials seem like an explosion is likely as a result of the leak.